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Industry experts have shown deep skepticism regarding bullish predictions that US large firms will quickly invest vast sums of dollars to fix the country's crumbling oil infrastructure.

The Need for Solid Guarantees

Absent an solid promise of financial backing from the Washington, specialists predict global energy giants to move with extreme caution.

“It is hasty to speculate on any potential investments,” a spokesperson commented this weekend.

The ambitious timeframe of less than 18 months has been boldly outlined. However, industry projections suggest a more cautious outlook.

A Probable Schedule

“Chances are going to take three years for any meaningful recovery in production,” commented an energy analyst.

Experts believe operators would likely spend:

• The first year: Sorting through new government and security contracts.
• Year two: Investing in rebuilding of facilities.
• Year three: Reaching a position to boost production.

The result could be an increase of around half a million barrels per day possibly by the end of the decade.

Desire Versus Readiness for Investment

Analysts draw a critical difference between companies' curiosity and their readiness to commit heavily.

“I believe their curiosity is an high score, on a scale of ten. However, their willingness is a much lower, because there is no clarity yet.”

Seasoned operators in the country echo this sentiment. The expectation is that firms will politically express enthusiasm while privately moving with extreme caution.

The Enormous Cost

The financial investment would be colossal. Research projections suggest that adding between half a million and a million bpd would require over $10 billion in funding over several years.

Yet, returning production to peak levels of around 2.5 million bpd could require a massive $80 billion to $90 billion over six or seven years.

The Unanswered Issue of Taxpayer Funding

The idea of firms being reimbursed by the federal government has been often floated. But, formal assurances on any guarantee have not yet been announced.

This lack of clarity is the key impediment for the industry's caution. Firms seek guarantees against political risk and the possibility that a subsequent administration could cancel any deal.

“They must be shielded from nationalization, that we’ve experienced in Venezuela previously.”

Therefore, while rhetorical promises runs high, the operational realities suggest a road of measured steps for potential major investment in the Venezuelan oil sector.