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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.