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A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."